Denny Hastert: Designated GOP Foley Scandal Shit-Magnet

How long will Denny Hastert manage to hang on as Speaker of the House before Rove has him thrown overboard?

My guess is the White House will make Hastert hold on as Speaker to serve as a Foley scandal shit-magnet until they're ready to launch a subject-changing pre-election stunt, at which point they'll flush him down the toilet and hope he takes as much of the Foley scandal with him as possible. I've been speculating that the stunt is going to be a Showdown With Nuclear Iran to Stand With Israel against Hezbollah and Pave the Way for Lasting Peace in the Middle East, which I bet they'll roll out early next week. On that schedule, Hastert probably gets thrown overboard tomorrow, though they could make him stick around until as late as Monday.

More October Surprise Speculation

[UPDATED below.]

As I've said before, I think it's extremely likely that the White House will try to put the country on Red Alert before election day. I stand by the following prediction:

If it looks like they're going to lose the mid-term elections, these guys will try to sweep the pieces off the chessboard, whatever it takes. Bombing Iran? Yes, absolutely. Bombing, blockade, whatever it takes. Mounting some sort of fantasy land special forces commando raid snipe hunt to capture Bin Laden based on "new actionable" evidence? Yes, absolutely. Foiling a trumped up domestic terror plot? Yes, they would do it. Using tactical nuclear weapons? If they thought it would help, Yes, they would do it.

So, where are we now? Well, let's see. Gas prices have been coming down. Score 1 for the GOP. The Republicans succeeded in passing the Preznit's torture legislation, which counts as a political victory in this election cycle, even if history and the popular culture will ultimately record it as an abject betrayal of American values. Score another point for the GOP.

On the other side of the ledger, the murderous civil war in Iraq has blasted its way back into the headlines, courtesy of the latest semi-suppressed NIE and Bob Woodward's latest book (in which Woodward apparently re-acquaints himself with the practice of journalism, having served as a hagiographer for the Bush Administration in his previous two books.) Anything else going on that might affect the Cheney/Rove/Bush calculus?

Well, yes. It turns out that the House Republican leadership has been complicit in six-term Republican sexual predator and Congressman Mark Foley's sexual abuse of underage boys under their care. Republican Speaker of the House Denny Hastert and Republican House Majority Leader John Boehner each had specific information that Foley was engaged in the sexual abuse of boys under their care, and they covered it up and allowed it to continue. The scandal is widening. This is an absolute disaster for the GOP.

I think it's pretty much a sure thing the White House is going to try to sweep the pieces off the chess board somehow. But what are their options? How can they push Iraq and the Foley/Hastert/Boehner scandal off the front pages?

They need to do something that isn't transparent show business and that can't be shrugged off by Democrats. The success of a stunt like this depends in part on its effectiveness in dividing the opposition. Cheney/Rove/Bush need to do something that (i) a substantial Democratic constituency already supports, or is disposed to support; (ii) can't just be "undone", i.e. changes the political landscape so that the mere doing of it automatically constrains the remaining options, so the debate can be structured as being about "what America does next" rather than "was it a good idea for Bush to do this?"; (iii) provides the media with an easy-to-understand GOP-friendly frame and story-line, preferably one they're already familiar with; and (iv) can be presented as a response to one or more problems the existence and urgency of which Democrats have already acknowledged.

UPDATE: I'm thinking through manufactured crisis scenarios in which the White House would try to position itself as standing with Israel against Iran. There are at least three necessary elements for this kind of stunt: (1) the White House needs to make an urgent, categorical, non-negotiable demand that Iran (or some other sufficiently menacing Enemy) obey the White House on some point or other; (2) the demand has to be structured so that there is zero risk that Iran (or the other Enemy) could accede to the demand without utterly humiliating itself and handing Bush a massive victory; and (3) the urgency of the demand has to be evidence-proof, i.e. there can't be any way to discredit the legitimacy of the demand through objective evidence.

House GOP Leaders Aid and Abet Underage Gay Sex Abuse

Republican House Majority Leader John Boehner and Republican Speaker Denny Hastert each appears to have aided and abetted GOP Rep. Mark Foley's sexual abuse of underage boys under their care.

The tip of the iceberg is all over the news. As the WaPo puts it:

Six-term Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) resigned yesterday amid reports that he had sent sexually explicit Internet messages to at least one underage male former page.

First, the Entertainment. ABC News just owns the fun creepy old man teen gay porn details part of this story. Here are some of the instant message exchanges with underage boys that sealed Republican Congressman Foley's fate. Foley goes by the screenname "Maf54":

Maf54: You in your boxers, too?
Teen: Nope, just got home. I had a college interview that went late.
Maf54: Well, strip down and get relaxed.
...
Maf54: What ya wearing?
Teen: tshirt and shorts
Maf54: Love to slip them off of you.
...
Maf54: Do I make you a little horny?
Teen: A little.
Maf54: Cool.

But here's where this thing turns into Christmas Morning for people who yearn for a Democratic takeover of the House. It turns out the Republican leadership knew about Foley's sexual misconduct for months and allowed it to continue. It's not just that they were generally aware that Foley had a thing for underage boys. No, it's way worse than that. It looks like they were specifically told about specific instances of predatory sexual misconduct by Foley concerning underage boys working as Congressional pages. The WaPo writes:

House Majority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) told The Washington Post last night that he had learned this spring of inappropriate "contact" between Foley and a 16-year-old page. Boehner said he then told House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert. Boehner later contacted The Post and said he could not remember whether he talked to Hastert.

So let's be clear about this. The real scandal is not that a creepy Republican Congressman was chasing after underage boys in his care -- though hey, I'll take it. The real scandal is this: Republican Congressional leaders -- specifically Republican House Majority Leader John Boehner and Republican Speaker Denny Hastert -- appear to have aided and abetted Rep. Foley's sexual abuse of underage boys under their care. They knew it was going on, they covered up reports that it was going on, and they allowed it to continue. At a minimum, they should resign immediately.

Here are the talking points I would give to Democratic surrogates to deliver on TV and in press interviews:

1) Given what is already known, both Boehner and Hastert appear to have been complicit in Foley's abuse of underage boys under their care. They should resign immediately.

2) A police investigation (not an "inquiry" or anything like that) needs to determine whether they broke the law.

3) Even though Boehner and Hastert need to resign immediately, we still need to know: What did they know, when did they know it, and who else in the GOP did they tell about it.

And now that the GOP has disappeared Rep. Foley, here is how I'm betting they run the damage control operation:

1) Vigorously denounce Foley's misconduct. "We're just as disgusted as you are, probably more so." "How were we supposed to know this guy was a closet Democrat?" If necessary, bring Foley back from his new digs in Guantanamo Bay for a public confession, in which he completely absolves Roehmer and Hastert of any possible knowledge of what he was up to.

2) Go on the offensive.

(i) Attack the Demorats: "But the Democrats are the ones who are pushing the Homosexual Agenda!" "Barney Frank had a gay prostitution scandal and the Democrats stood behind him." "The Democrats were hearing the same rumors we were hearing."

(ii) Attack the media: "You never go after Barney Frank for being gay. You're a bunch of hypocrites." "The people would rather talk about the issues." "The Beltway media was hearing the same rumors we were hearing. Why didn't you write about it?"

(iii) Attack homosexuals. The strategic objective for the GOP here is to get the media to repeat homophobic memes in questions to Democrats, and generally to get the media to conflate the sexual exploitation of teenagers with homosexuality. For example: "But how do you respond to the charge that it's the Democrats, not the Republicans, who support gay rights?"

3) Put big pressure on the media not to refer to Foley as a "Republican." After all, he's an "ex-Republican" now, right? And isn't he objectively more of a Democrat than a Republican? He was never really one of us. See number 2.

4) Boehner and Hastert would love to comment on this and show you the super secret paperwork showing all the hard work they did to shut this guy down, but it would be inappropriate for them to discuss the matter while the Ethics Committee investigates. The Chairman of the Ethics committee could even specifically request that nobody talk about the matter publicly until the Committee has a chance to fully review the evidence... in December.

October Surprise: Much Worse Than You Think

Dems are poised to win back the House. Will there be an October Surprise? In a word: Yes. The only surprise will be if the country isn't on red alert by the week after next.

1) If the Dems pick up the House, they thereby pick up the ability to effectively investigate White House and White House-sponsored misconduct.

2) Democratic investigations of White House and White House-sponsored misconduct are likely to uncover serious wrongdoing and egregious misconduct. Obviously there's no way for outsiders to know ahead of time what aggressive investigations might uncover, but the White House knows. As a general proposition, we know that this gang is disposed to lawlessness, radicalism and corruption. They've been operating without Congressional oversight for years, in a war- and propaganda-induced climate of fear. With a few notable exceptions, the press has been AWOL. Given what we know about these guys, and given that they've been operating essentially without any constraints on their conduct for so long, my speculation is that there is lots and lots of misconduct waiting to be uncovered. How afraid is the White House of facing a Dem-controlled House? Very, very afraid.

3) If the White House were constrained by either respect for the rule of law or adherence to the conventions and traditions undergirding the American system of government, it would be Document Shredding Time at the White House. If these were traditional wrongdoers facing the prospect of being caught, they would be trying to cover up the evidence of their wrongdoing.

4) This White House does not operate on the basis of respect for the rule of law or adherence to the institutional traditions and customs underlying the American system of government. These guys are lawless radicals. Sure, if it comes to that they'll try to cover up evidence. But whereas traditional wrongdoers might cut straight to that step, this gang has a more primal impulse: holding onto power and retaining total control.

5) If it looks like they're going to lose the House, let alone the House and the Senate, the White House will resort to extraordinary means to change that outcome. There is almost nothing they won't do. To put it mildly, this White House does not distinguish between domestic electoral politics and foreign policy, even in matters of war.

6) Please take a moment to let this sink in. If it looks like they're going to lose the mid-term elections, these guys will try to sweep the pieces off the chessboard, whatever it takes. Bombing Iran? Yes, absolutely. Bombing, blockade, whatever it takes. Mounting some sort of fantasy land special forces commando raid snipe hunt to capture Bin Laden based on "new actionable" evidence? Yes, absolutely. Foiling a trumped up domestic terror plot? Yes, they would do it. Using tactical nuclear weapons? If they thought it would help, yes they would do it.

7) For clarity and emphasis: if it looks like the GOP is going to lose the House, the White House will take the country to Red Alert. Wag the dog? Sure, but it won't just be show business. These guys are prepared to do the real thing, on a big scale if necessary.

8) Are Dem leaders prepared for this? They need to be. What happens if we wake up one morning and the White House announces that Operation Bomb Iran to Freedom has begun, what will Dem leaders do? Will they salute? Will they "give the President the benefit of the doubt?" Will they be considering the issue for the first time?

Dems need to be ready for this. We all need to be ready for this.

A Reminder: This Election Really Matters

While the conduct of Dem leaders in the Geneva Conventions debacle has been pathetic, it would be a huge mistake to pretend that this election doesn't matter, that Dems are just as bad as Republicans, or that things are so screwed up that nothing matters anymore.

For starters: Republicans want to stay in Iraq, bomb Iran, suppress the basic oversight function required to be served by Congress in the American system of government, transform America into a police state (and yes, it could get much, much worse than it is now), cement America's post-9/11 adversarial relationship to most of the world, weaken the UN, dismantle social security, further stack the federal judiciary (not just the Supreme Court) with lunatics, further erode the separation of Church and State, amend the Constitution to entrench discrimination against homosexual Americans and roll back already insufficient environmental protections just as it becomes clear that the global warming crisis is far more severe than most of us had realized. It's so painful to watch Dem leaders blow it precisely because the stakes are so high.

In 2000, lots of people supported Nader on the theory that there was no meaningful difference between Gore and Bush. That's looking like a pretty dumb call right now, isn't it? Wouldn't punishing the Dems for their incompetence by staying home on election day be even dumber, now that everybody has the benefit of hindsight?

UPDATE: Edited to change "function ... played" to "function ... served".

Surreal Bush UN Speech

I just saw a replay of the part of Bush's speech to the UN General Assembly today in which he purported to speak directly to the Iranian people. He said:

To the people of Iran: The United States respects you; we respect your country. We admire your rich history, your vibrant culture, and your many contributions to civilization. You deserve an opportunity to determine your own future, an economy that rewards your intelligence and your talents, and a society that allows you to fulfill your tremendous potential. The greatest obstacle to this future is that your rulers have chosen to deny you liberty and to use your nation's resources to fund terrorism, and fuel extremism, and pursue nuclear weapons. The United Nations has passed a clear resolution requiring that the regime in Tehran meet its international obligations. Iran must abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions. Despite what the regime tells you, we have no objection to Iran's pursuit of a truly peaceful nuclear power program. We're working toward a diplomatic solution to this crisis. And as we do, we look to the day when you can live in freedom -- and America and Iran can be good friends and close partners in the cause of peace.

What. A. Moron.

That is all.

New GOP Meme

You heard it here first. They're going to try it right after the press conference announcing that the WH has backed down and agreed to urgent demands by Saint McCain and [fill in names of endangered Republicans] that the WH respect the Geneva Conventions in prisoner interrogations and/or tinker with the W-is-Like-a-King warrantless wiretap program:

If the Democrats are too Weak to Stand Up to the President, How Can You Expect Them to Fight the Evildoers?