Showing posts with label UN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UN. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Richard Cohen: Vacuous and Contemptible

I haven't done any research on this, but to my knowledge nobody has ever accused WaPo columnist Richard Cohen of being well-informed, intellectually curious, talented, insightful or interesting. But his latest column, a piece on why Barack Obama should run for President titled, "Why Not Obama?", manages to be both vacuous and contemptible. The highlights:
Life itself -- its hard lessons -- cautions me to look with consummate cynicism on the Obama trial balloon. After all, the man has been in the United States Senate for a mere two years, and before that he served -- with distinction, we are told -- in the Illinois legislature, where, it seems, just staying out of jail is distinction enough. We know little about Obama's political performance, since he has performed so little. He is only 45, which is about the age of some of my suits. On the world stage, he would be a child.
Shorter Richard Cohen: I haven't bothered to do any research on Obama's record in the Senate or in the Illinois legislature, but I'll join everybody else in noting that he doesn't have much experience. But in Cohen's case, it's "consummate cynicism" based on "hard lessons" learned from "Life itself" talking, so you'd better pay attention. Never mind that this consummate cynicism only kicks in when it happens to agree with the conventional wisdom du jour. For starters, where was all that world-weary cynicism when Cohen was working himself into a bellicose frenzy in support of the Iraq war?

Cohen continues:
And yet I cheer his announcement that he might announce he is going to announce -- something like that. I say this not just because I have been following his career out of the corner of my eye -- my, my, ain't he a natural! -- but because I've actually been reading his speeches. The one he gave on the role of religion in politics was as smart a speech as I've ever read. It's the sort of thing John F. Kennedy could have given, only his would have been written by someone else, probably Ted Sorensen.
I wasn't crazy about Obama's religion speech. It struck me as a fairly maudlin embrace of public religiosity for the purpose of currying favor with the religious right. But that's neither here nor there. Cohen liked the speech, fair enough. But it's the sort of thing John F. Kennedy could have given? Except Ted Sorensen ("Ask not what your country can do for you...") would have written it? Meaning what exactly? I guess it means that Cohen really liked Obama's speech, and he's pimping the idea of Obama as a charismatic Democratic savior, so there's a natural tie-in with another speech he really liked by an established charismatic Democratic savior. But the comparison is ridiculous, and not just because religiosity was totally foreign to Kennedy's style. Kennedy was calling on people in the United States and throughout the world to transcend self-interest and work together to make the world a better place. Obama was saying "Vote for me, I'm not like those other Democrats who don't appreciate the legitimate role of religion in public life." Here's a link to the JFK speech. Here's a link to the Obama speech. JFK's inaugural address is to Obama's speech what The Brothers Karamazov is to The Pelican Brief.

But it gets better:
I cheer also because Obama is an African American -- an African father, an American mother. For someone like him to be a presidential candidate -- maybe even president -- says oodles about this country. After eight years of George W. Bush and his narcissistic foreign policy -- me, me, us, us -- it would be great to have a president who presents a different message just by his complexion and who compensates, if anything can, for how Iraq has tarnished America's reputation, particularly in the Third World.(Emphasis mine)
Cohen's crude and moronic tokenism pretty much speaks for itself, so I'll move on.

Here is the best part:
But mostly I want Obama to run because he would come into the race with no baggage on Iraq. Not from him would we hear excuses about how he was misled by the Bush administration into thinking there were weapons of mass destruction there. Obama not only was against the war when he ran for the Senate but he can claim -- as could the 21 Democratic senators who voted against the war resolution -- that it was possible to accept the "facts" at the time and still see that the war was unnecessary, if not downright stupid. It just makes me wince every time I hear John Kerry or John Edwards or Joe Biden or Chris Dodd or Hillary Clinton say they were misled, fooled, lied to or some other version of seduced and abandoned -- otherwise they would have voted the right way. This is disingenuous.
So it makes Cohen "wince" to hear this, does it? He thinks it is disingenuous for these politicians to claim they were had by the Bush Administration? Now see if you don't find it a bit disingenuous for Cohen to level this criticism at Kerry, Edwards, Biden, Dodd and Clinton given that he himself wrote this on February 6, 2003, on the eve of war, in the wake of Colin Powell's over-the-top performance at the U.N.:
The evidence he presented to the United Nations -- some of it circumstantial, some of it absolutely bone-chilling in its detail -- had to prove to anyone that Iraq not only hasn't accounted for its weapons of mass destruction but without a doubt still retains them. Only a fool -- or possibly a Frenchman -- could conclude otherwise. [...]

North Korea probably already has nuclear bombs. Iran may have a nuclear weapons program. Pakistan has the bomb, India and China too. All kinds of states -- stable, unstable and just plain nutty -- are making weapons of mass destruction. Pretty soon, any collection of fanatics with a chemistry set will pose a horrific threat. The world is steadily becoming less and less secure. Now is not the time for the United Nations to flinch.

As with Tevye, there is no "other hand" when it comes to Iraq. If anyone had any doubt, Powell proved that it has defied international law -- not to mention international norms concerning human rights -- and virtually dared the United Nations to put up or shut up. There is no other hand. There is no choice.
Did you get that? "Only a fool -- or possibly a Frenchman -- could conclude" that Saddam Hussein did not have weapons of mass destruction. What did Cohen say at the time about the prospect of war on Iraq? "There is no choice."

[Minor edits after initial posting.]

Monday, October 23, 2006

Security Council Iran Politics and the New World Order After 9/11, Part II

On Saturday, I wrote:
U.S. media sources generally report on the politics of Iran's nuclear program at the Security Council as if the definition of the problem were uncontroversial -- U.S. press accounts generally assume that the issue before the Security Council is how the world ought to respond to the prospect of nukes in the hands of a menacing Iranian regime.

In reality, China, Russia and France (i.e. the permanent members of the Security Council other than the U.S. and the U.K.) may well perceive the central problem facing the Security Council in the following way: How to keep the United States engaged in the Security Council process and prevent it from operating as a rogue superpower outside of the institutional framework of the United Nations, while at the same time being careful to avoid any Security Council action that could be used by the United States as a justification or pretext for executing its fundamentally unilateral plans (especially military plans).
An editorial in today's USA Today, titled "As China pressures N. Korea, will Putin face down Iran?" illustrates the point I was making. According to the USA Today editorial board, if Putin isn't gung-ho to enlist in American efforts to "face down" Iran, it's because he's too focused on regaining superpower status for Russia to pay attention to other issues, no matter how important:

On Saturday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice went to Moscow hoping to turn the "momentum" of sanctions against North Korea into similar action against Iran. Russia was having none of it. "We won't be able to support and will oppose any attempts to use the Security Council to punish Iran" to promote regime change, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

What's happening is that Russian President Vladimir Putin's agenda is driven by a single obsession: to regain as much of the former Soviet Union's superpower status (and territory) as possible. Iran holds a key to restoring Russia's once-considerable influence in the Middle East. The two have strong trade ties, and Moscow is helping Iran build a nuclear power plant. So other priorities have shrunk to invisibility, including Russia's once-intense interest in deterring the spread of nuclear weapons.
The USA Today editorial goes on to assert that Putin's conduct is "unconscionable," in view of the dire consequences of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons:
His actions with regard to Iran are particularly unconscionable because Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons could easily set off a regional arms race that would threaten everyone. Israel, which Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad routinely threatens with annihilation, already has a nuclear stockpile. Other nations in the region, most of them Sunni Arab states distrustful of Iran's Shia version of Islam, would feel the pressure to build their own weapons in what is already the most unstable region on earth. The potential for terrorists to get nukes would rise dramatically.
Conspicuously absent from the editorial is any mention of the Bush Administration's central role in creating this mess. Simply put, the U.S.-led Iraq war did more to aggravate the instability of the "most unstable region on earth" than any other action in recent history. The Iraq war, combined with the Bush Administration's decision to publish an official enemies list (in the form of its "Axis of Evil") created an incentive for Axis of Evil states to develop a nuclear deterrent capability on an urgent basis. Pre-invasion, Iraq was a secular dictatorship without any nuclear weapons capability whatsoever, whose ability threaten its neighbors through conventional military means had been eliminated in the first Gulf War. In the wake of the Bush Administration's Iraq war, Iraq is or is on the way to becoming a failed state, a training ground and recruiting opportunity for terrorists determined to strike at the U.S. and its allies.

Also conspicuously absent from the USA Today editorial is any acknowledgment or discussion of Russia's concern -- explicitly cited by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and quoted in the USA Today editorial itself-- that the United States might use a Security Council resolution as a pretext or justification for embarking on yet another regime change adventure, this time with Iran. In addition to any concern it may have about Iranian nukes, Russia is also worried that the U.S. could be gearing up for another wild man act in the Middle East. Incredibly, the USA Today editorial board misses that concern -- or ignores it -- completely.

With this in mind, consider the sanctimonious obliviousness and unintended irony of the editorial's conclusion:
Either way, the world is likely to get a lot more dangerous unless Putin can be persuaded to act in the way that the leader of a responsible world power should.
Today's USA Today editorial needs to go into the October 2006 time capsule, to give historians a few hundred years from now a sense of what public discourse about international relations was like in the United States in the George W. Bush era.

Saturday, October 21, 2006

Security Council Iran Politics and the New World Order After 9/11

UPDATED BELOW @ 5:35 PM.
The online edition of the Washington Post is running an Associated Press report by Anne Gearan with the headline "Rice Confident of U.N. Action on Iran". Gearan writes:
The swift decision to impose international sanctions on North Korea for its rogue nuclear test could grease the skids for sanctions on Iran over its disputed nuclear program, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Saturday.

"It really does help to create a momentum," Rice said after leaving four days of crisis talks in Asia in response to the North's test.
Contrast that with another Associated Press report, this one by AP writer Vladimir Isachenkov, running on the Yahoo! News site under the headline "Russia minister: No punishment for Iran". Isachenkov writes:
Russia will not allow the U.N. Security Council to be used to punish Iran over its nuclear program, the foreign minister said. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia was ready to discuss ways to pressure Iran into accepting a broader international oversight of its nuclear program, but added that "any measures of influence should encourage creating conditions for talks."

"We won't be able to support and will oppose any attempts to use the Security Council to punish Iran or use Iran's program in order to promote the ideas of regime change there," Lavrov said Friday in an interview with the Kuwaiti News Agency KUNA which was posted on the Russian Foreign Ministry Web site Saturday.
Juxtaposing these quotations throws into relief an interesting point about the politics of Iran's nuclear program at the Security Council.

Rice and Lavrov -- and their respective governments -- do not define the problem facing the Security Council in the same way. For Rice and the United States, the objective is to restrict Iran's nuclear program and prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. For Lavrov and Russia, restricting Iran's nuclear program may be an objective, but so is constraining U.S. power and restricting its ability to confront Iran militarily.

U.S. media sources generally report on the politics of Iran's nuclear program at the Security Council as if the definition of the problem were uncontroversial -- U.S. press accounts generally assume that the issue before the Security Council is how the world ought to respond to the prospect of nukes in the hands of a menacing Iranian regime.

In reality, China, Russia and France (i.e. the permanent members of the Security Council other than the U.S. and the U.K.) may well perceive the central problem facing the Security Council in the following way: How to keep the United States engaged in the Security Council process and prevent it from operating as a rogue superpower outside of the institutional framework of the United Nations, while at the same time being careful to avoid any Security Council action that could be used by the United States as a justification or pretext for executing its fundamentally unilateral plans (especially military plans).

This may well be the true achievement of the Bush Administration: bringing about a New World Order in which the central organizing principle in international relations is constraining U.S. power.

UPDATE, 5:35 PM: The WaPo link now takes you to a different story by Anne Gearan, filed later in the day. As of 5:35 PM, versions of the original story can be found on the websites of ABC News, Forbes, CBS News and others (except that "grease the skids" has been changed to "clear the way").

Friday, October 06, 2006

Showdown with Iran Watch

Going into the weekend, these are the two key potential developments to watch for by way of indications that the White House is gearing up for an election-season Showdown with Iran:

1) Having returned from her Middle East tour, Condi Rice reports that the take-away from her meetings with Arab leaders is that resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is the key to achieving a lasting Peace in the Middle East, but that Iran's nuclear program and its support for Hezbollah make solving that conflict impossible, so Red Alert Urgent Priority #1 for the White House is staring Iran down.

2) Rice and other U.S. officials indicate that the U.S. is done negotiating with Iran, and if the Security Council "fails to act," i.e., fails to ratify the White House's list of robust sanctions first thing next week, the U.S. is prepared to act on its own. In order to stage the Showdown with Iran, the White House needs to take the Iran file away from the Security Council.